Global fundamentals

Our world runs on energy – it’s fundamental to our way of life and growing our economy. Energy is essential for everything from fueling our cars to heating our homes to powering the appliances we depend on daily. But the world is changing. An expanding population, economic growth, new technology development and changes in the nature and scope of regulations are all transforming the energy landscape. We are becoming more energy-efficient and moving to cleaner fuels. At the same time, modern technology is developing new resources and making energy more affordable, all while creating new jobs and expanding trade around the world.

An additional 2 billion people worldwide by 2040 means growing mobility requirements, rising electricity needs for homes and other buildings, and increasing energy supplies to power industry

Total world households will be up almost 50 percent, with 90 percent of the growth occurring in developing countries. We also expect urbanization to play a role in the growing energy needs through 2040. Where and how people live impacts energy demand. The population is shifting to cities, with a greater number of homes but fewer people per household. An average urban resident consumes more energy than his or her rural counterpart. At the same time, urban residents likely have easier access to modern, more efficient fuels.

A country’s working-age population – people ages 15 to 64 – represents the engine for its economic growth and its energy demand

Demographics also impact energy demand. A robust working age population supports a strong economy and drives consumption of energy. This economic growth – and the improved living standards fostered by these demographic shifts – creates an opportunity to supply energy in a safe, reliable and affordable manner that enables both economic growth and social development.

The global economy is expected to grow at an annual average rate of 2.8 percent from 2010 to 2040

Economic growth, and the improved living standards it enables, will require more energy. Non OECDEconomies not belonging to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development countries will contribute slightly more than half of total economic growth over the Outlook period. While energy demand in the OECDDeveloped economies that belong to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development will be essentially flat to 2040, economic output will increase by 80 percent.

There is a marked difference in energy needs between Non OECD and OECD countries during the Outlook period

Energy efficiency is one of the largest and lowest-cost ways to extend our world’s energy supplies and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Energy-efficiency gains play a growing role in every country across the globe over the Outlook period. Still, in Non OECD countries, efficiency gains will be outpaced by the demand for energy to support better living standards and expanding prosperity for about 85 percent of the world’s people.

Ultimately, energy demand is determined by how people can use it to meet their needs

Over the Outlook period, ExxonMobil sees energy demand rising in four main sectors: electricity generation, industrial, transportation and residential/commercial. Today, and over the next 30 years, electricity generation represents the largest energy use across these four sectors. Yet even now, around 1.3 billion people don’t have access to electricity, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).