global power generation demand

The considerations affecting power generation choices in the United States extend in a similar fashion to countries around the world. Summarized in the charts are the anticipated global power generation requirements to 2030 — split by total OECD OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) Member Countries (30) Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Korea, Luxembourg, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States and non-OECD nations.

As shown on the left, total OECD power generation is expected to grow only about 1 percent per year to 2030. With a cost of CO₂ emissions assumed in this area over the period, growth will be led by lower CO₂-intensive fuels. Significantly, the contribution from coal is expected to decline from 40 percent to 30 percent, while nuclear and gas will each gain a considerable share of the mix. Renewable fuels will grow most rapidly.

In non-OECD countries, total power generation demand is expected to increase more than twice as fast as in the OECD countries. Also, unlike the OECD, coal demand will rise substantially and retain close to a 50 percent share. Increases in gas demand will be led by Asia Pacific and the Middle East. Nuclear and renewables will grow most rapidly and combine for approximately a 20 percent share of non-OECD power generation demand by 2030.

On a global basis, coal will remain the largest source of power through the outlook period. Even with growth of only about 1 percent per year, its share of global power generation fuels will be approximately 40 percent in 2030. While more efficient technologies and cleaner fuels will continue to penetrate the power generation sector, coal’s predominance will continue to have significant implications on overall CO₂ emissions.