summary

Global energy demand is projected to grow at 1.3% per year Underpinned by economic and population growth Mitigated by efficiency gains Power generation represents more than 40% of demand increase Growth concentrated in developing countries Coal maintains highest fuel share, though gas has largest growth Nuclear power contribution grows, primarily post 2020 Transportation sector demand growth slows over time Increase in new light duty vehicle fuel economy helps offset impact of growing fleet Biofuels supply increases but limited by cost and scale considerations Demand growth and fuel mix will lead to increased CO2 emissions

 

Key elements of the outlook are summarized here.

First, global energy demand is expected to grow at 1.3 percent per year on average to 2030. This increase will be underpinned by economic and population growth. At the same time, significant energy efficiency gains will help mitigate overall demand increases.

Power generation to meet rapidly growing electricity needs will the biggest driver of higher energy demand, representing more than 40 percent of the increase. This increase will be concentrated in the developing countries. Coal will continue as the most prominent source of power, while gas will have the most significant growth. Nuclear power will also expand, primarily post-2020.

Energy to meet rising transportation needs will also be significant. However, demand growth will slow with time as vehicles with better fuel economy penetrate the market, and the growth in overall fleet size slows down — especially in OECD nations. While biofuels supply will increase rapidly, it is limited by both cost and scale. Therefore, oil will remain essential to meeting transportation demands.

Lastly, energy-related CO₂ emissions will rise, driven by higher demand and the expected fuel mix.